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Thursday, July 23, 2009

Felix wins #50, why is no one voting for him?


Felix vs. CC
We need to see a head to head battle.

Can we talk about a 23 year old pitcher who just picked up his 50th win? The man is now 11-3 on the season. He is a veteran pitcher, even though he is just a youngster. He is the ace of his staff, a dominant big league pitcher, he strikes out almost one batter per inning pitched and he is probably underpaid for what he brings to his club. So why is he so under appreciated?


Felix Hernandez is probably the best bet of any of the pitchers to reach 300 wins. Here is how my math works, now this will only apply if he can stay healthy, but stick with me here.


Felix can play till he is 38, that is 15 more years.
He will win 8 more times this year. That moves his to 58
The next 5 years from age 24-29 he wins 18/year. That moves him to 148.

The next five years from age 30-34 he wins 16/year. That moves him to 228.
The next four years from age 35-38 he wins 14/ year. That moves him to 284.

Then he would either need to pitch until he was 40 and pick up 16 more wins, or he could pick up one extra win for each of those years I talked about and that puts him right around the 300 mark. What do you think? Isn't this possible.


A good friend of mine has a sports talk radio show in Vermont. Last night he had the opportunity to interview Buster Olney from ESPN. I asked my friend Jeff, to ask Olney the question about if he thought there would be another 300 game winner and if so who would it be. Olney answered: "I think that if anybody does it again, it will be CC Sabathia. But among current pitchers .... hard to find anybody who you could envision sticking around that long..."


So I thought I would compare those same numbers with CC Sabathia who currently has 127 wins, so here is the same math:


CC is now 29 years old and he can play till he is 38, that is 9 more years.
He will win 8 more times this year. That moves his total to 135.
The next five years from age 30-34 he wins 16/year. That moves him to 215.

The next four years from age 35-38 he wins 14/ year. That moves him to 271.

So during the next 9 years CC will need to pick up another 3 wins/ season which would put him up to 297-300 wins or if he could pitch to 40 he would need to pick up an extra couple of years of 15 years.


For either of these pitchers they need to stay healthy. Buster Olney is the expert, so I am going to see if I can outsmart him. I doubt I can but I am gonna try. So here is my prediction, Felix Hernandez will be a 300 game winner.

Sadly if my math is right I will be 61 when it happens. I will be watching him win #300, sitting in a rocking chair, eating bran, and following his games on some new and crazy technology.


Oh and by the way, Chad Billingsley also won last night. He is 25 and has won 45 games, somebody else can do the math.

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